Global posture 4 of 5, High
Wed, 11 Nov 2026
Three theaters saw kinetic activity on 10 November: large Russian drone and missile waves against Ukraine (per independent analysts), attacks on tankers in Gulf waters, and Houthi missile fire at Riyadh with coalition strikes reported in Sanaa. Diplomatic tracks exist (Abu Dhabi talks, a US statement holding off a renewed offensive on Iran) but produced no ceasefire. Coverage gaps in four theaters limit confidence.
Coverage was thin for: Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
Coverage was thin across the board: Taiwan Strait and South China Sea could not be researched at all, Israel, Gaza and Lebanon and Sudan yielded no window events, Russia and Ukraine rests on a single independent assessment, the Korean Peninsula on a single headline, and little was found for 11 November in any theater.
Theaters
Level 1 calm to 5 critical. The level is judgment, the activity index is arithmetic.Drag to turn. Pick a theater to center it.
Since the last report
- This is the first report in the series, so there is no earlier baseline; all trends are marked flat.
- 10 November: the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting Houthi missiles aimed at Riyadh, and Saudi officials reported minor debris damage to an Aramco tower.
- 10 November: a vessel was reported damaged in UAE waters and a tanker struck off Oman; Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy claimed two tankers caught fire on mines.
- 10 November: President Trump said the US will not renew its offensive against Iran for now; an Iranian official said no negotiations are taking place.
- 9 to 10 November: independent analysts counted 162 drones and one ballistic missile launched at Ukraine overnight, then 155 drones and two cruise missiles in daytime.
- 10 November: North Korea's side said its navy plans a new high-speed torpedo for deployment in early 2027; no test was confirmed.
Russia and Ukraine
L4 High■ steady
Independent analysts counted 162 drones and one Iskander-M missile launched into Ukraine overnight from 9 to 10 November, then 155 drones and two cruise missiles during the day on 10 November; these are not Ukrainian air force figures and no damage was reported. The same analysts report continued Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian aviation and no ground advances by either side. They also say US, Russian and Ukrainian talks are ongoing in Abu Dhabi, with no ceasefire or exchange reported.
Activity index 6.5 from 3 events1 de-escalation stepBaseline after 7 more reports
Iran and the Gulf
L4 High■ steady
On 10 November the UAE's state oil company said a vessel was damaged in an attack in UAE waters, and a UK maritime agency reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile off Oman; no attacker was identified. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy says two tankers caught fire after hitting mines on what it calls an unauthorised route, which is not independently confirmed. The same day President Trump said the US will not renew its offensive for now and Secretary Rubio saw no need to restart major combat, while Iranian official Rezaei said no negotiations are under way.
Activity index 9.5 from 7 eventsBaseline after 7 more reports
Red Sea and Yemen
L4 High■ steady
On 10 November the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two Houthi missiles aimed at Riyadh and a third aimed at the south, and Saudi officials reported minor debris damage to an Aramco tower. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claims four operations, including against Riyadh's airport and financial district, Abqaiq and a troop gathering in Lahj; these are not independently confirmed. Yemen's state news agency in Sanaa reports coalition strikes on a gas facility and a state oil company building, which the coalition did not immediately confirm, and Yemeni government forces claim 29 airstrikes on Houthi positions.
Activity index 12.5 from 5 eventsBaseline after 7 more reports
Korean Peninsula
L2 Guarded■ steady
On 10 November North Korea's side said its navy plans a new high-speed torpedo with a deployment target of early 2027. No test was confirmed, and no South Korean or US statements were found for 10 or 11 November.
Activity index 0.5 from 1 eventBaseline after 7 more reports
Israel, Gaza and Lebanon
L3 Elevated■ steady
No event could be confirmed for 10 or 11 November because research for this theater was incomplete; this is a coverage gap, not a finding of quiet. Background reference material describes an Israel-Hezbollah conflict ongoing since 2 March 2026, with Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon since 16 March.
Activity index 0 from 0 eventsBaseline after 7 more reports
Sudan
L3 Elevated■ steady
No military event dated 10 or 11 November was found, and research for those days was incomplete. Just before the window, on 8 November, the Sudanese army and allied forces claimed gains in West Kordofan and a drone shootdown; these are army-side claims without independent confirmation, and no RSF account was found.
Activity index 0 from 0 eventsBaseline after 7 more reports
Event log
17 of 17 events-
10 NovMajorRussia and UkraineClaim, half weight+2.5 indexIndependent analysts count 162 drones and one Iskander-M ballistic missile launched overnight into Ukraine on 9 to 10 November; these are the analysts' tallies, not Ukrainian air force figures, and no damage was reported.
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10 NovMajorRussia and UkraineClaim, half weight+2.5 indexIndependent analysts count 155 drones, two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and an unspecified number of loitering munitions launched during daytime on 10 November; no damage was reported.
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10 NovStrikeIran and the GulfClaim, half weight+2 indexThe UAE's state oil company says a vessel was damaged in an attack in UAE waters; the attacker has not been identified.
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10 NovStrikeIran and the GulfClaim, half weight+2 indexA UK maritime security agency reports a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile off Oman.
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10 NovStrikeIran and the GulfClaim, half weight+2 indexIran's Revolutionary Guards Navy says two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on what it calls an unauthorised route; this is Iran's claim and is not independently confirmed.
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10 NovStrikeRed Sea and Yemen+4 indexSaudi officials say debris from an attempted Houthi attack caused minor damage to an Aramco tower in Riyadh, and an official inspected the building.
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10 NovStrikeRed Sea and YemenClaim, half weight+2 indexHouthi spokesman Yahya Saree claims four operations, including strikes on King Khalid International Airport, Abqaiq, Riyadh's financial district and a troop gathering in Lahj; these are Houthi claims and are not independently confirmed.
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10 NovStrikeRed Sea and YemenClaim, half weight+2 indexYemen's Saba state news agency reports coalition strikes on the al-Mufazir gas facility north of Sanaa and a state oil company building in southern Sanaa; the coalition did not immediately confirm them.
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10 NovIncidentRussia and UkraineClaim, half weight+1.5 indexIndependent analysts report Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian aviation overnight from 9 to 10 November; no Ukrainian or Russian statement was found.
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10 NovIncidentRed Sea and Yemen+3 indexThe Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted two Houthi missiles aimed at Riyadh and a third aimed at the south; no casualties were reported.
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10 NovIncidentRed Sea and YemenClaim, half weight+1.5 indexYemeni government forces say they carried out 29 airstrikes against Houthi positions in recent hours; this is the government's claim and is not independently confirmed.
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10 NovPostureIran and the Gulf+2 indexCanada reimposes sanctions on 11 Iranian entities linked to nuclear and missile programmes, announced at the G7 meeting.
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10 NovStatementIran and the GulfClaim, half weight+0.5 indexUS President Trump says Washington will not launch a renewed offensive against Iran for now, citing positive momentum toward ending the conflict.
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10 NovStatementIran and the GulfClaim, half weight+0.5 indexUS Secretary of State Rubio says there is no need to restart major combat operations against Iran.
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10 NovStatementIran and the GulfClaim, half weight+0.5 indexIranian official Rezaei says no negotiations between Iran and the US are currently under way, and Iran's foreign ministry calls on Washington to meet Iran's demands.
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10 NovStatementKorean PeninsulaClaim, half weight+0.5 indexNorth Korea's side says its navy plans a new high-speed torpedo with a deployment target of early 2027; no test was confirmed.
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10 NovDe-escalationRussia and UkraineClaim, half weightnot scoredIndependent analysts report US, Russian and Ukrainian trilateral talks ongoing in Abu Dhabi; no ceasefire or prisoner exchange was reported.
About to happen
Forward assessments, not factsDays to weekslow confidence
Russian salvos are running large but below the 300 mark
45%Will Ukraine's air force report a single overnight Russian attack of 300 or more drones and missiles combined between 2026-11-12 and 2026-11-25?
- Why
- Independent analysts counted 162 drones plus one ballistic missile overnight into 10 November, then 155 drones and two cruise missiles during the day. Taken together the daily volume exceeds 300, but neither wave alone reached that level, and the question depends on a single overnight figure from Ukraine's air force. Coverage was thin and rests on one assessment, with no Ukrainian air force tally found, so the estimate stays just under even odds.
- Watch for
- Ukrainian air force morning tallies, a shift from split day and night waves to one concentrated overnight salvo, and any pause of several days that could signal stockpiling.
Weekslow confidence
Abu Dhabi talks keep a prisoner exchange plausible
60%Will Russia and Ukraine carry out a prisoner of war exchange between 2026-11-12 and 2026-12-05?
- Why
- Independent analysts report that trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine are continuing in Abu Dhabi. No exchange or ceasefire was reported in this window, and the analysts say the Kremlin is pushing to frame the talks around wider European security arrangements while rejecting a European role. An ongoing channel leaves room for a humanitarian step even with the political track stuck, but there is no direct evidence of one being prepared.
- Watch for
- Announcements from either side's prisoner coordination bodies, mention of humanitarian items on the Abu Dhabi agenda, and any mediator statement about a completed swap.
Weeksmedium confidence
Washington signals a hold on new strikes against Iran
15%Will the United States carry out acknowledged new strikes on Iranian territory between 2026-11-12 and 2026-12-05?
- Why
- President Trump says there will be no renewed offensive for now, citing positive momentum and Gulf partners' wish to avoid escalation, and Secretary Rubio says there is no need to restart major combat operations. Against that, the US describes itself as locked and loaded, keeps its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and is deploying a further carrier. Continued attacks on tankers and an unconfirmed single report of US aircraft moved from a British base over an Iranian threat are the main paths to a reversal.
- Watch for
- A change in White House wording, the arrival of the additional carrier, an attack that kills US personnel or is publicly pinned on Iran, and any confirmation of the reported threat to bases in Britain.
Weeksmedium confidence
US and Iranian accounts of talks still contradict each other
25%Will Iran and the United States both publicly confirm that direct or mediated negotiations between them are under way by 2026-12-05?
- Why
- Trump pointed to positive momentum after contact with Qatar's prime minister, who then briefed the EU and Saudi Arabia. Iranian official Rezaei says no negotiations with the US are taking place, and Iran's foreign ministry is calling on Washington to meet its demands. Reporting on the state of talks indicates Iran has not agreed to renewed nuclear monitoring or removal of its highly enriched uranium, so joint public confirmation looks distant.
- Watch for
- An Iranian foreign ministry acknowledgement of indirect exchanges, a named venue or date from Qatar, and any movement on monitoring or enriched uranium.
Dayshigh confidence
Further attacks on Gulf shipping look close to certain
93%Will a UK maritime security agency report at least one new attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf or the Gulf of Oman occurring between 2026-11-12 and 2026-11-18?
- Why
- On 10 November alone, a UK maritime security agency reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile off Oman, the UAE's state oil company said a vessel was damaged in UAE waters, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy claimed two tankers burned after striking mines. The Iranian claim is not independently confirmed and the attacker in the UAE case is unidentified. With ten attacks already counted this month, a week without a new agency report would be a sharp break in pattern.
- Watch for
- New incident reports from the UK maritime agency, further Iranian statements about mines or unauthorised routes, and any attribution for the UAE waters attack.
Weeksmedium confidence
November ship attacks are tracking below October's record
20%Will the total number of ships reported attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters in November 2026 reach 37 or more, as reported by 2026-12-05?
- Why
- October's count of 37 ships attacked was the highest monthly total of the war, while November stood at 10 so far in the latest count. That pace projects to roughly 30 for the month, short of the threshold unless the tempo rises. Several incidents in a single day on 10 November, alongside Iran's mine claims, show how a cluster could close the gap.
- Watch for
- Updated running totals for November, days with multiple vessels hit, and signs of wider mine use in the strait.
Dayshigh confidence
Houthi fire on Riyadh is likely to continue
85%Will the Saudi-led coalition or Saudi authorities report intercepting at least one Houthi missile or drone aimed at Riyadh between 2026-11-12 and 2026-11-20?
- Why
- The Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted two missiles aimed at Riyadh and a third aimed at the south on 10 November, and Saudi officials report debris caused minor damage to an Aramco tower. The Houthis claim four operations, including against the airport, Abqaiq and the financial district, which are not independently confirmed. Reported coalition strikes around Sanaa, a government ground offensive and no sign of talks all point to more exchanges.
- Watch for
- Coalition interception statements, further extensions of flight suspensions to Riyadh, new Houthi claims against oil and pipeline sites, and any coalition confirmation of the Sanaa strikes.
Track record
Every forecast is scored when its deadline passes10open forecasts
0scored so far
n/ahappened
n/aBrier score
Nothing has reached its deadline yet, the first is due 18 Nov. Once forecasts resolve, the Brier score measures them: 0 is perfect, and always answering 50% scores 0.25.
Open forecasts
10 awaiting resolution- 93%Will a UK maritime security agency report at least one new attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf or the Gulf of Oman occurring between 2026-11-12 and 2026-11-18? Due 18 NovIran and the GulfFiled 11 Nov Settled by: An incident notice from the UK maritime trade operations agency, or independent reporting citing it, describing an attack on or strike against a commercial vessel in those waters dated within the stated period.
- 85%Will the Saudi-led coalition or Saudi authorities report intercepting at least one Houthi missile or drone aimed at Riyadh between 2026-11-12 and 2026-11-20? Due 20 NovRed Sea and YemenFiled 11 Nov Settled by: A statement by the Saudi-led coalition or Saudi state authorities reporting an interception of, or impact from, a Houthi missile or drone aimed at Riyadh on a date within the stated period.
- 45%Will Ukraine's air force report a single overnight Russian attack of 300 or more drones and missiles combined between 2026-11-12 and 2026-11-25? Due 25 NovRussia and UkraineFiled 11 Nov Settled by: A Ukrainian air force statement giving a combined count of 300 or more drones and missiles launched in one overnight attack during the stated dates, carried by independent media.
- 60%Will Russia and Ukraine carry out a prisoner of war exchange between 2026-11-12 and 2026-12-05? Due 5 DecRussia and UkraineFiled 11 Nov Settled by: Confirmation by the Russian defense ministry or Ukraine's prisoner of war coordination headquarters that an exchange of prisoners took place within the stated dates.
- 15%Will the United States carry out acknowledged new strikes on Iranian territory between 2026-11-12 and 2026-12-05? Due 5 DecIran and the GulfFiled 11 Nov Settled by: A statement by the US government or US military acknowledging strikes on targets inside Iranian territory during the stated dates, or consistent reporting by at least two independent international outlets of such strikes.
- 25%Will Iran and the United States both publicly confirm that direct or mediated negotiations between them are under way by 2026-12-05? Due 5 DecIran and the GulfFiled 11 Nov Settled by: Public statements from both the Iranian government and the US government, made on or before the deadline, confirming that negotiations (direct or through a named mediator) are taking place.
- 20%Will the total number of ships reported attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters in November 2026 reach 37 or more, as reported by 2026-12-05? Due 5 DecIran and the GulfFiled 11 Nov Settled by: A monthly tally for November 2026 published by a major international news agency or a recognised maritime security body by the deadline, showing 37 or more ships attacked.
- 50%Will North Korea launch at least one ballistic missile between 2026-11-12 and 2026-12-05, as reported by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff? Due 5 DecKorean PeninsulaFiled 11 Nov Settled by: A statement by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, or by Japan's defense ministry, reporting a North Korean ballistic missile launch on a date within the stated period.
- 6%Will Russia and Ukraine announce a general ceasefire covering the whole front line by 2026-12-10? Due 10 DecRussia and UkraineFiled 11 Nov Settled by: A public announcement by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments, or by the United States as mediator and not denied by either party, of a general ceasefire covering the full front line, reported by at least two independent international outlets.
- 7%Will a ceasefire or formal pause in hostilities between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition be announced by 2026-12-10? Due 10 DecRed Sea and YemenFiled 11 Nov Settled by: A public announcement of a ceasefire, truce or formal pause by the Houthis, by Saudi Arabia or the coalition, or by a named mediator such as the United Nations or Oman, reported by at least two independent outlets.
Defense wire
8 of 8 items-
10 NovEuropeProcurementBelgium to Buy GM200 Radars for Blue Dome Air Defense Belgium has ordered GM200 MM/C radars for its Blue Dome air defense program, with the sensor described as linked to Kongsberg command software and AIM-9X missiles within the NASAMS architecture.
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10 NovAmericasProcurementBAE Systems Completes Lot 8 Sensor Deliveries for LRASM BAE Systems reports it has delivered all Lot 8 radio-frequency sensors for the LRASM anti-ship missile to Lockheed Martin, and the excerpt is cut off.
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10 NovAmericasProcurementLockheed Martin Reaches 100,000 GMLRS Rockets Built Lockheed Martin has built its 100,000th GMLRS rocket and reports output of 14,000 a year, and a ground test of a new General Dynamics solid rocket motor is cited as a production step.
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10 NovMiddle EastPostureClaimIRGC Aerospace Force Shows New Missile City Iran's IRGC Aerospace Force has unveiled a new missile city displaying ballistic and cruise missiles with their launchers, as reported by Iranian state-linked media, and this is not independently confirmed.
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10 NovMiddle EastStatementClaimIran Says Hormuz Missiles Can Strike Ships and Radars Iran says it is ready to use its Hormuz missile family, based on the Fateh design and introduced in the 2010s, to target ships and radar stations, a statement not independently confirmed.
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10 NovRussia and UkraineProcurementClaimRussia Unveils Garpiya-A1(E) Loitering Munition for Export Rosoboronexport's chief, Alexander Mikheyev, says the Garpiya-A1(E) is the world's only loitering munition available for export, and the stated range is cut off in the excerpt.
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10 NovRussia and UkraineAir defenseClaimAlmaz-Antey Shows Avtopritsel Counter-Drone Turret Almaz-Antey has unveiled the Avtopritsel automated turret for countering drones, with stated detection ranges of about 0.5 km for a DJI Mavic-type UAV, 1 km for a person, and 3 km for a truck, as reported by Russian sources and not independently confirmed.
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10 NovRussia and UkraineStrikeClaimRussia Says It Struck Ukrainian Crossing in Zaporizhzhia Russia's defense ministry says its aerospace forces hit a Ukrainian armed forces crossing in Zaporizhzhia with five FAB-500 aerial bombs, a claim not independently confirmed.
Items marked Claim repeat a statement by one party to a conflict that has not been independently confirmed. Forward signals are analytical judgments made by Lualdi Advisors from open information and can be wrong. Probabilities are those judgments expressed as numbers, not the output of a trained model, and the track record shows how they have held up. The activity index adds up each day's logged hostile events on a fixed severity scale, with unconfirmed claims at half weight. It reflects what was reported that day, so thin coverage lowers it. This report is not investment, legal or security advice.
